MARKETS HAPPY HOUR PODCAST

In today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we focus in particular on some of the other economies outside the US, with a look at how markets are reacting to the 7th Prime Minister in 10 years and ask who is the new “sick man” of Europe. Starting with what might be deemed to be inflation’s deep fake moment – the false dawn of June’s low number, we ask what is to come if oil price induced inflation breaks out in the second half of the year. The oil price is in now in overdrive, having surpassed $100 per barrel today, a sharp reaction to not only the reignition of the kinetic clashes in the Strait of Hormuz, but the report of low inventories on a global scale and a clear surging demand for energy has led to expectations of higher prices by the end of December. For the moment central banks have been minded to pause on interest rate hikes – a policy across the UK, the US and the ECB for now. Within equity markets the divergence of some sectors continues – although semi-conductors have recently given back some of their gains with a sharp reversal in momentum. Financials have been surging as trading volume and corporate transactions rise, while single stock volatility continues to be an issue after the IBM earnings report. We discuss other drivers of volatility such as the increasing level of retail participation in markets which seems to lead to exacerbated momentum. This is also a development in Asia – the exception is Europe, which has low retail participation and where the equity markets represent an ever smaller percentage of global volumes. While this is a sorry indictment of the state of the equity markets in Europe, it does mean that momentum stocks have been more volatile.